Live · Next: UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Model 76.6% walk-forward · 3192 OOS fights tested · 7 annual windows · 149 signals per fight · 15,000 sims per matchup · Last card: 3/3 · called Magomedov · 143 predictions tracked · Free 7-day Pro trial
Live · Next: UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Model 76.6% walk-forward · 3192 OOS fights tested · 7 annual windows · 149 signals per fight · 15,000 sims per matchup · Last card: 3/3 · called Magomedov · 143 predictions tracked · Free 7-day Pro trial
Tracked benchmark · 76.6% walk-forward accuracy
Built for fight-week scale near real-time sources

Fight-week
intelligence
for people who
keep score.

Analyze every UFC matchup with calibrated model probabilities, 15,000 round-by-round Monte Carlo simulations per fight, verified card data, market context, and Claude Opus fight breakdowns. Tracked walk-forward benchmark: 76.6% accuracy across 3,192 out-of-sample fights over 7 annual windows.

Unlock Next Card Report → See Proof First
Preview Next Card free No charge during trial View accuracy
7 days free Use Pro during fight week
$99 annual Save 45% vs monthly
Proof-first Accuracy stays public
Cancel anytime Free tier remains available
Fight-week workflow Verify card Run model Check market Read report Track results
76.6%
Walk-Forward Accuracy
100%
Last Card · 3/3
15,000
Sims Per Fight
149
Model Signals
Most Recent Card · Called 3 of 3 (100%) · incl. Magomedov ✓
Next Event
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2
Holloway vs McGregor
July 11, 2026 • 14 fights
Preview Card →
Trusted Data Stack

A sharper fight-week read, without more work.

FightEdge brings model output, market context, source freshness, and reliability receipts into one operating picture before the card starts moving.

Scored fight history Model receipts stay visible after the event.
Odds API market context Live pricing is compared against model probability.
CITO verification Cached source checks backstop card and fighter data.
ESPN result tracking Live scoring feeds the proof loop after each fight.
Claude fight notes Readable narratives sit beside numeric confidence.
Market Feed
The Odds API
Live sportsbook context stays separate from model probability so disagreement remains visible.
Verification Layer
CITO Cross-Check
Cached UFC source receipts help confirm card and fighter context without burning requests per user.
Card Freshness
Fight Week HQ
Current-card checks, staged picks, and report-ready context keep the work organized.
Analysis Engine
Model + Claude
Numeric edge, simulation fit, narrative, and supporting signals travel together.
Reliability View
Data Confidence
Reports call out sample risk, source receipts, market gaps, and caution reads.
User Loop
Alerts + Tracking
Watchlist, report-ready, live tracker, and ROI tools keep users connected after analysis.
76.6%
Walk-forward accuracy
Published benchmark status is shown plainly instead of recycled when stale.
15,000
Monte Carlo sims
Every matchup gets round-by-round simulation context before report synthesis.
149
Model signals
Signal attribution keeps the pick understandable, not just confident.
143
Prediction ledger
Tracked receipts, accuracy pages, and calibration context stay visible.
Model Proof Center
See the public record before trusting the next pick.
FightEdge now groups model record, confidence buckets, value-signal coverage, and scored event receipts into one transparent page.
94/144 public record 65.3%
Latest Receipt
9/13
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres
2026-06-27 · 69.2%
Workflow

A fight card, from first read to final receipt.

FightEdge is built as a sequence, not a pile of tools. Each stage makes the next decision easier to trust.

01

Analyze

Open the card, run the model, and generate fight-by-fight probabilities, simulation fit, and Claude narrative context.

02

Verify

Check card freshness, CITO receipts, source drift, sample risk, and report reliability before treating any pick as actionable.

03

Find Value

Compare model probability against market odds, line movement, expert picks, and staged risk preferences.

04

Track

Follow live results, push alerts, Lock or Fade, ROI, CLV, and accuracy as the event plays out.

05

Improve

Use receipts, calibration, confidence buckets, and personal tracking history to sharpen the next fight week.

Fight Week HQ Card readiness and next actions in one place. Use it before the card starts moving. Ask the Model Interrogate matchup logic instead of reading passively. Great for edge cases and second looks. Edge Worklist Market-vs-model checks before logging a decision. Built for disciplined review. Value Finder Find price disagreement, not just confident picks. Model edge meets sportsbook context. Report Reliability Sample risk, source receipts, and caution flags travel with each report. Useful confidence beats blind confidence. Proof Center Receipts turn weekly predictions into a trackable record. Trust is earned after scoring.
The Toolkit

Everything you need, for every fight.

From first preview to fight-night tracking, FightEdge guides the next useful action without hiding the underlying data.

AI fight breakdowns built by Claude Opus.

Every fight gets a three-part analysis: a multi-paragraph narrative, 2–3 Core Edges calling out the decisive advantages, and 4–6 Supporting Insights with stat-level attribution. Reads like a serious analyst's notebook, not a generated blurb.

Narrative Core Edges Stat Attribution Per-Fight

Winner Predictions

Probability-based picks with confidence zones. See exactly WHY each prediction was made through signal attribution.

Method Breakdown

KO/TKO, Submission, and Decision probabilities for each fighter. Know HOW the fight is likely to end.

15,000 Fight Simulations

15,000 Monte Carlo simulations per fight using our in-house engine — models striking, takedowns, submissions, fatigue, and damage round-by-round.

Guided Fight-Week Workflow

Fight Week HQ, report reliability, watchlist context, staged picks, and adaptive next-move prompts keep the card workflow organized as event day gets close.

Value Finder

Live odds from multiple sportsbooks compared against model predictions. Find edges where the market is wrong. Kelly-optimal bet sizing.

Expert + Community Consensus

Aggregated picks from MMA Intel, DRatings, and Reddit sentiment. See where experts agree or disagree with the model.

Parlay Builder

Interactive parlay optimizer with live probability calculations, fair odds, and auto-generated Lockness Monster and Method Monster parlays.

Line Movement Tracking

Detect sharp money, steam moves, and reverse lines. Know when the smart money is moving before the market adjusts.

Personal Bet Tracker

Log paper or real bets, track ROI, closing-line value, bankroll curve, and profit history, then let the dashboard point you back to the next useful workflow.

What-If Scenarios

Model weight misses, short notice replacements, injuries, altitude, and referee assignments. See how real-world variables shift predictions in real time.

Fighter Similarity

Find statistically similar fighters using 11-dimension analysis. See how comparable matchups played out historically.

Community, Profiles & Follows

Public profiles with pick records, follow users to build a personalized feed, react to picks with lightweight reaction chips, @mention friends, earn badges, and join auto-seeded discussion threads for every UFC card.

Live Tracker + Mobile Push

Install FightEdge on your phone home screen. Get push-notified within ~2 minutes of every correct pick landing. Auto-refreshing dashboard on fight night — results appear one-by-one as the model calls them.

Watchlist Signals + Alerts

Follow fighters and tune report-ready, booked-fighter, and odds-watch signals so saved names surface when they matter across dashboard, reports, and Fight Week HQ.

Streaks, Ranks & Trivia

Daily login streaks with freeze days, earn your rank from Rookie to Legend, compete on seasonal leaderboards (all-time / month / quarter / year), and test yourself on daily MMA trivia.

Unlock Pro Features → Create Free Account
The Engine

Under the hood.

Built on real data science, not vibes.

1

Data

6,871 fights with per-round stats, live odds, expert picks, Reddit sentiment

2

Predictor

Our proprietary rule + Elo predictor — tuned heuristics, head-to-head Elo ratings, and matchup-specific style adjustments, refined over 6,871 historical fights

3

Simulate

15,000 Monte Carlo fight simulations modeling round-by-round striking, grappling, and fatigue

4

Blend

Model, sims, experts, and market data compared so disagreement is visible instead of hidden

5

Guide

Reports, Fight Week HQ, reliability context, alerts, and adaptive dashboard prompts point you to the next useful action after analysis lands

Fight-Week Command Grid

Every surface has a job.

The platform is organized around the actual rhythm of a UFC card: verify the slate, analyze the fights, act on the edges, and track what happened.

Current Card

One operating view for the upcoming event.

Dashboard, Events, Fight Week HQ, and Reports point users toward the next useful action instead of scattering the card workflow across disconnected pages.

  • Card status and fight count
  • Report availability and re-analysis path
  • Top picks, featured angles, and next moves
Verify

Source confidence before conviction.

CITO receipts, UFC card drift checks, freshness signals, and report reliability panels make stale or conflicting inputs visible before users lean on the pick.

  • Card and fighter verification
  • Freshness and source receipts
  • Data-confidence cautions
Analyze

Model edge with readable context.

Probability, simulation fit, market check, and narrative synthesis stay together so reports feel fast and explainable.

Act

Turn picks into decisions.

Value Finder, Parlay Builder, odds movement, and staged picks let users compare risk instead of chasing raw confidence.

Track

Close the loop after the bell.

Live tracker, Lock or Fade scoring, ROI, CLV, accuracy, and calibration surfaces turn the card into a visible performance history.

  • Live fight-night results
  • Personal tracking and community scoring
  • Public model receipts after the event
Product Tour

The product, not a promise.

Real FightEdge surfaces: the dashboard, generated reports, fight-week workflow, proof pages, and betting tools users actually open on card week.

A full fight-week workspace in one browser.

Each view is built around a specific decision: verify the card, read the model, check market disagreement, track results, and improve the next card.

01 / 06
Report confidence is visible. Readers see sample risk, source receipts, market gaps, and caution labels before leaning on a pick.
The workflow stays connected. Dashboard, Fight Week HQ, Reports, Value Finder, and tracking pages point to the next useful action.
Proof closes the loop. Completed cards feed the public ledger, calibration, and member tracking instead of disappearing after event night.
The Difference

Why FightEdge?

Most prediction tools give you a name with no explanation. We give you the full picture.

The Alternatives DRatings · MMA Decisions · MMA Intel · Reddit threads

  • Give you a name and nothing else — no probability, no method, no edge
  • Ask you to trust black-box picks without published calibration receipts
  • Hide their model behind paywalls or never describe it at all
  • No per-round stat projections, no Monte Carlo simulations
  • No calibration data, no Brier score, no live accuracy tracking
  • Only cover numbered PPVs — Fight Nights skipped entirely
  • No live tracker, no fight-night dashboard, no push alerts

FightEdge Pro · Built different

  • Shows exactly WHY each pick was made — signal attribution per fight
  • Tracked walk-forward benchmark: 76.6% accuracy across 3,192 out-of-sample fights over 7 annual windows
  • Open methodology — verify our calibration yourself
  • Per-round strikes, takedowns, subs from 15,000 simulations per fight
  • Published Brier score, ECE, and live accuracy tracking
  • Every UFC event — Fight Nights, numbered cards, full card analysis
  • Live fight-night tracker + push notifications when picks land
  • Free tier forever — try Pro free for 7 days with no charge during trial
Who It's For

Built for people who want to win.

You don't need to be a data scientist or a professional bettor. FightEdge does the heavy lifting — you make the decisions.

Casual Fans
Know who's going to win before the fight starts. Impress your friends with data-backed picks instead of gut feelings.
Sports Bettors
Find value where the books are wrong. Our model spots edges the market misses — and the published calibration page proves the model is consistently under-confident, meaning the real edge is larger than shown.
Fantasy Players
Per-round strike projections, takedown numbers, and control time estimates from 15,000 simulations per fight. Optimize your lineups.
The Receipts

Transparent tracking. Published receipts.

Tracked walk-forward benchmark: 76.6% accuracy across 3,192 out-of-sample fights over 7 annual windows. When a public metric is pending refresh, we say so instead of recycling stale accuracy claims.

76.6%
Walk-Forward Accuracy
3,192
Out-of-Sample Fights Tested
149
Engineered Signals
Model Performance Summary
The model is consistently under-confident at every predicted-probability bucket — see calibration for the per-bucket breakdown.
143 predictions logged and tracked transparently.
Published calibration metrics
Open methodology — verify it yourself
Tracked numbers labeled by benchmark and refresh status
Live accuracy tracking
Pricing

Simple. Transparent.

Free tier forever. Try Pro for 7 days, then choose monthly or the $99 annual plan.

Full reports before fight night Every matchup gets model probability, sims, method paths, context, and the why behind the pick.
Value checks as lines move Compare market price to model edge, line movement, sharp signals, and confidence warnings.
Card-week workflow Fight Week HQ, watchlist alerts, next moves, parlays, and what-if tools stay organized in one place.
Personal proof tracking Score your own decisions with ROI charts, profit curve, CLV tracking, and report receipts.
Free
$0
Forever
  • ✓ Winner predictions
  • ✓ Lock or Fade prediction game
  • ✓ Live tracker + mobile push
  • ✓ Public profiles + community feed
  • ✓ Streaks, ranks & daily trivia
  • ✓ Fighter search + profiles
  • ✓ Rankings (P4P + official)
  • ✓ Public proof center + accuracy transparency
7 DAYS FREE
Pro
$14.99/mo
Billed monthly · cancel anytime
  • ✓ Everything in Free
  • ✓ Full card analysis + shareable reports
  • ✓ AI Core Edges + Supporting Insights per fight
  • ✓ Method breakdowns + 15K sim projections
  • ✓ Fight Week HQ + adaptive next moves
  • ✓ Value finder + parlay builder
  • ✓ What-If scenarios (injury, weight miss, short notice)
  • ✓ Line movement + sharp money detection
  • ✓ Expert picks + Reddit sentiment
  • ✓ Watchlist signals + report-ready alerts
  • ✓ Fighter similarity + CLV tracking
  • ✓ Proof-backed report receipts and next-card workflow
  • ✓ Personal ROI chart + profit curve
Start Monthly Trial
No charge during trial · $14.99/mo or $99/yr after · cancel anytime
Free tier remains available Annual option restored at $99 Stripe-powered billing
Free proves it
Check record, receipts, and community tools before paying.
Pro applies it
Turn the proof trail into live card reports, value checks, and personal tracking.
Cancel anytime
Use the trial during fight week and keep it only if the workflow earns it.
Free Game

Lock or Fade.

Free prediction challenge for every UFC event. No Pro subscription needed.

Pick Every Fight
Click a fighter to lock in your pick for every fight on the card. Change your mind anytime before the event starts. No money, no risk — just bragging rights.
Climb the Leaderboard
Picks auto-score after each event. Track your accuracy, build your streak, and compete against the entire FightEdge community on the all-time leaderboard.
Play Lock or Fade — Free
FAQ

Frequently asked questions.

How accurate is FightEdge really? +

Tracked walk-forward benchmark: 76.6% accuracy across 3,192 out-of-sample fights over 7 annual windows. Published walk-forward windows use prior-data-only training and test splits against fights the model had not seen. You can verify the current public benchmark on our Accuracy and Calibration pages.

What do I get with the free tier? +

Winner predictions with confidence zones, fighter search and profiles, full rankings, and complete accuracy transparency including our calibration metrics. The free tier is yours forever — no credit card required.

How is this different from other prediction sites? +

Most sites give you a name and nothing else. FightEdge shows you exactly WHY each prediction was made — method probabilities, stat projections from 15,000 simulations, signal attribution, expert consensus comparison, and full fight narratives. We also publish our accuracy and calibration metrics so you can verify our claims.

Can I cancel my Pro subscription? +

Yes, cancel anytime from your account settings. Your 7-day trial is completely free — you won't be charged a cent unless you choose to continue. After cancellation you keep access until the end of your billing period, then revert to the free tier.

What fights do you cover? +

Every UFC event — numbered PPVs, Fight Nights, and full cards including prelims. Our model runs predictions on every scheduled bout, not just main events. Data refreshes automatically during fight week.

Next event · July 11, 2026

Know before the bell rings.

Preview the next card free, then use the 7-day Pro trial when you want reports, Fight Week HQ, Value Finder, parlays, and tracking.

Unlock Next Card Report → Preview Next Card
76.6% Walk-forward
15K Sims per fight
149 Signals
143 Tracked picks
No charge during trial · $14.99/mo or $99/yr after · Free tier always available
Built With
Rule + Elo Predictor Monte Carlo Engine Claude Opus Web Push (VAPID) AWS Elastic Beanstalk Stripe Payments SendGrid