Live · Next: UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · Yadong vs Figueiredo · Model 75.4% walk-forward · 3148 OOS fights tested · 7 annual windows · 149 signals per fight · 15,000 sims per matchup · Last card: 7/13 · called Williams · 86 predictions tracked · Free 7-day Pro trial
Live · Next: UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · Yadong vs Figueiredo · Model 75.4% walk-forward · 3148 OOS fights tested · 7 annual windows · 149 signals per fight · 15,000 sims per matchup · Last card: 7/13 · called Williams · 86 predictions tracked · Free 7-day Pro trial
verified walk-forward · 75.4% walk-forward

The fight prediction platform
built for people who keep score.

A proprietary rule + Elo predictor with 15,000 round-by-round Monte Carlo simulations per fight, isotonic-calibrated probabilities, and Claude Opus 4.7 fight breakdowns — 75.4% walk-forward accuracy across 3,148 out-of-sample fights over 7 annual windows. Full card analysis in minutes, not hours.

Start 7-Day Free Trial → See How It Works
No charge for 7 days · Cancel anytime · Free tier available forever
75.4%
Walk-Forward Accuracy
0%
Last Card · 7/13
0
Sims Per Fight
0
Model Signals
Most Recent Card · Called 7 of 13 (54%) · incl. Williams ✓
Next Event
UFC Fight Night
Yadong vs Figueiredo
May 30, 2026 • 11 fights
View Predictions →
The Toolkit

Everything you need, for every fight.

One platform. Full analysis. No guesswork.

📖

AI fight breakdowns built by Claude Opus 4.7.

Every fight gets a three-part analysis: a multi-paragraph narrative, 2–3 Core Edges calling out the decisive advantages, and 4–6 Supporting Insights with stat-level attribution. Reads like a serious analyst's notebook, not a generated blurb.

Narrative Core Edges Stat Attribution Per-Fight
⚔️

Winner Predictions

Probability-based picks with confidence zones. See exactly WHY each prediction was made through signal attribution.

🥊

Method Breakdown

KO/TKO, Submission, and Decision probabilities for each fighter. Know HOW the fight is likely to end.

📊

15,000 Fight Simulations

15,000 Monte Carlo simulations per fight using our in-house engine — models striking, takedowns, submissions, fatigue, and damage round-by-round.

💰

Value Finder

Live odds from multiple sportsbooks compared against model predictions. Find edges where the market is wrong. Kelly-optimal bet sizing.

🧠

Expert + Community Consensus

Aggregated picks from MMA Intel, DRatings, and Reddit sentiment. See where experts agree or disagree with the model.

🎲

Parlay Builder

Interactive parlay optimizer with live probability calculations, fair odds, and auto-generated Lockness Monster and Method Monster parlays.

📈

Line Movement Tracking

Detect sharp money, steam moves, and reverse lines. Know when the smart money is moving before the market adjusts.

🎯

Personal Bet Tracker

Log your bets, track your ROI, and see your personal profit curve over time. Know exactly how profitable you are.

🔧

What-If Scenarios

Model weight misses, short notice replacements, injuries, altitude, and referee assignments. See how real-world variables shift predictions in real time.

🔍

Fighter Similarity

Find statistically similar fighters using 11-dimension analysis. See how comparable matchups played out historically.

💬

Community, Profiles & Follows

Public profiles with pick records, follow users to build a personalized feed, react to picks (🔥💪👀🤔), @mention friends, earn badges, and join auto-seeded discussion threads for every UFC card.

🔔

Live Tracker + Mobile Push

Install FightEdge on your phone home screen. Get push-notified within ~2 minutes of every correct pick landing. Auto-refreshing dashboard on fight night — results appear one-by-one as the model calls them.

🔥

Streaks, Ranks & Trivia

Daily login streaks with freeze days, earn your rank from Rookie to Legend, compete on seasonal leaderboards (all-time / month / quarter / year), and test yourself on daily MMA trivia.

The Engine

Under the hood.

Built on real data science, not vibes.

1

Data

6,871 fights with per-round stats, live odds, expert picks, Reddit sentiment

2

Predictor

Our proprietary rule + Elo predictor — tuned heuristics, head-to-head Elo ratings, and matchup-specific style adjustments, refined over 6,871 historical fights

3

Simulate

15,000 Monte Carlo fight simulations modeling round-by-round striking, grappling, and fatigue

4

Blend

Model, sims, experts, and market data compared so disagreement is visible instead of hidden

5

Deliver

Full transparency: probabilities, methods, stat projections, narratives, and signal attribution

Live Preview

See it in action.

Real screenshots from the FightEdge platform — what you actually get.

The Difference

Why FightEdge?

Most prediction tools give you a name with no explanation. We give you the full picture.

The Alternatives DRatings · MMA Decisions · MMA Intel · Reddit threads

  • Give you a name and nothing else — no probability, no method, no edge
  • Claim 85%+ accuracy with no published walk-forward methodology
  • Hide their model behind paywalls or never describe it at all
  • No per-round stat projections, no Monte Carlo simulations
  • No calibration data, no Brier score, no live accuracy tracking
  • Only cover numbered PPVs — Fight Nights skipped entirely
  • No live tracker, no fight-night dashboard, no push alerts

FightEdge Pro · Built different

  • Shows exactly WHY each pick was made — signal attribution per fight
  • 75.4% walk-forward accuracy across 3,148 out-of-sample fights over 7 annual windows
  • Open methodology — verify our calibration yourself
  • Per-round strikes, takedowns, subs from 15,000 simulations per fight
  • Published Brier score, ECE, and live accuracy tracking
  • Every UFC event — Fight Nights, numbered cards, full card analysis
  • Live fight-night tracker + push notifications when picks land
  • Free tier forever — try Pro free for 7 days, no credit card
Who It's For

Built for people who want to win.

You don't need to be a data scientist or a professional bettor. FightEdge does the heavy lifting — you make the decisions.

🎯
Casual Fans
Know who's going to win before the fight starts. Impress your friends with data-backed picks instead of gut feelings.
💰
Sports Bettors
Find value where the books are wrong. Our model spots edges the market misses — and the published calibration page proves the model is consistently under-confident, meaning the real edge is larger than shown.
📈
Fantasy Players
Per-round strike projections, takedown numbers, and control time estimates from 15,000 simulations per fight. Optimize your lineups.
The Receipts

Transparent accuracy. Zero BS.

75.4% walk-forward accuracy across 3,148 out-of-sample fights over 7 annual windows. When a public metric is pending refresh, we say so instead of recycling stale accuracy claims.

75.4%
Walk-Forward Accuracy
3,148
Out-of-Sample Fights Tested
0
Engineered Signals
Model Performance Summary
The model is consistently under-confident at every predicted-probability bucket — see calibration for the per-bucket breakdown.
86 predictions logged and tracked transparently.
✅ Published calibration metrics
✅ Open methodology — verify it yourself
✅ No inflated numbers
✅ Live accuracy tracking
Pricing

Simple. Transparent.

Free tier forever. Pro unlocks the full toolkit.

Free
$0
Forever
  • ✓ Winner predictions
  • ✓ Lock or Fade prediction game
  • ✓ Live tracker + mobile push
  • ✓ Public profiles + community feed
  • ✓ Streaks, ranks & daily trivia
  • ✓ Fighter search + profiles
  • ✓ Rankings (P4P + official)
  • ✓ Accuracy transparency
7 DAYS FREE
Pro
$14.99/mo
Billed monthly · cancel anytime
  • ✓ Everything in Free
  • ✓ Full card analysis + shareable reports
  • ✓ AI Core Edges + Supporting Insights per fight
  • ✓ Method breakdowns + 15K sim projections
  • ✓ Value finder + parlay builder
  • ✓ What-If scenarios (injury, weight miss, short notice)
  • ✓ Line movement + sharp money detection
  • ✓ Expert picks + Reddit sentiment
  • ✓ Fighter similarity + CLV tracking
  • ✓ Personal ROI chart + profit curve
Start Free Trial
Free Game

Lock or Fade.

Free prediction challenge for every UFC event. No Pro subscription needed.

🏆
Pick Every Fight
Click a fighter to lock in your pick for every fight on the card. Change your mind anytime before the event starts. No money, no risk — just bragging rights.
🏅
Climb the Leaderboard
Picks auto-score after each event. Track your accuracy, build your streak, and compete against the entire FightEdge community on the all-time leaderboard.
Play Lock or Fade — Free
FAQ

Frequently asked questions.

How accurate is FightEdge really? +

75.4% walk-forward accuracy across 3,148 out-of-sample fights over 7 annual windows. Each window trains on strictly prior data and tests on that year's fights when the refreshed summary is publishable. You can verify all of this on our Calibration page.

What do I get with the free tier? +

Winner predictions with confidence zones, fighter search and profiles, full rankings, and complete accuracy transparency including our calibration metrics. The free tier is yours forever — no credit card required.

How is this different from other prediction sites? +

Most sites give you a name and nothing else. FightEdge shows you exactly WHY each prediction was made — method probabilities, stat projections from 15,000 simulations, signal attribution, expert consensus comparison, and full fight narratives. We also publish our accuracy and calibration metrics so you can verify our claims.

Can I cancel my Pro subscription? +

Yes, cancel anytime from your account settings. Your 7-day trial is completely free — you won't be charged a cent unless you choose to continue. After cancellation you keep access until the end of your billing period, then revert to the free tier.

What fights do you cover? +

Every UFC event — numbered PPVs, Fight Nights, and full cards including prelims. Our model runs predictions on every scheduled bout, not just main events. Data refreshes automatically during fight week.

Next event · May 30, 2026

Know before the bell rings.

Try FightEdge Pro free for 7 days. Full access to every feature. Cancel anytime — you won't be charged a cent.

Start 7-Day Free Trial → Create Free Account
No charge during trial · $14.99/mo or $99/yr after · Free tier always available
Built With
⚡ Rule + Elo Predictor 📊 Monte Carlo Engine 🧠 Claude Opus 4.7 🔔 Web Push (VAPID) ☁️ AWS Elastic Beanstalk 🔒 Stripe Payments 📧 SendGrid