Welcome! UFC Fight Night: Maddalena vs. Prates Is Next!
Methodology & Walk-Forward Validation
Every number on this page is verifiable. Most prediction sites publish none of this.
76.3%
Walk-Forward Accuracy
3,589
Out-of-Sample Fights
7
Annual Test Windows
0.1774
Overall Brier Score
15,000
Monte Carlo Sims / Fight
Walk-forward validation means each annual window is trained strictly on prior years
and tested on that year's UFC fights. No data leakage. No cherry-picking. The number you see is the average across
7 independent out-of-sample tests.
Per-Year Walk-Forward Accuracy
Each bar is one annual test window. The model was trained on every UFC fight before that year, then tested on every
fight that year. The number on each bar is that year's hit rate on the test fights.
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Last walk-forward run: 2026-04-18.
Live calibration data on the Calibration page.
Per-event production accuracy on the Accuracy History page.
How a Prediction Is Made — Step by Step
1
Data Ingestion
Multi-source UFC fight data — UFC.com (primary), Wikipedia, Sherdog, plus per-round stats from 6,871 historical fights. Live odds from multiple sportsbooks. Expert picks from MMA Intel and DRatings. Reddit community sentiment.
2
Fighter Profile Build
Each fighter's profile is computed from their UFC + career fight history: striking accuracy, defense, takedown defense, control time, durability, finish rates by method, archetype classification (striker / wrestler / grappler / well-rounded), and Elo rating with style-matchup adjustments.
3
Rule + Elo Predictor
A rule-based predictor combines the Elo head-to-head delta with stylistic matchup factors (e.g. wrestler vs striker, range advantage, durability gap). Walk-forward tested on 3589 out-of-sample fights across 7 annual windows. ML pipeline retired in v3.2.7 after the same walk-forward proved it was Brier-worse than the rule baseline.
4
Monte Carlo Simulation
15,000 fight simulations per matchup. Round-by-round striking, grappling, fatigue, damage accumulation, dynamic chin degradation, stance matchup modifiers, division-specific finish rates. Generates method probabilities, fight-duration props, per-zone strike projections, takedowns, control time, round-by-round finish probability.
5
Isotonic Calibration
Probabilities are calibrated using isotonic regression trained on the rule+Elo predictor's own walk-forward output. Brier improvement: 0.0244. Calibration table is fitted on 2,506 training points and validated on 627.
6
Output
Win probability, method breakdown (KO/TKO, SUB, DEC), fight duration props with fair odds, per-round finish probability, per-zone strike projections, takedowns, control time. Plus signal attribution showing which inputs drove the prediction. Plus fully-AI-written 3-section fight breakdown via Claude Opus 4.7.
Calibration Detail
Confidence labels (FLIP / LEAN / SOLID / STRONG) are calibrated using isotonic regression so that a "70% pick"
actually wins ~70% of the time historically. The calibration layer is fitted on the rule+Elo predictor's own
walk-forward output (no in-sample bias) and capped at 0.85 to respect the variance UFC fights actually exhibit.
Method
Isotonic regression
Training Set
2,506 fights
Brier Improvement
−0.0244
Calibrated Holdout Brier
0.1801
Live calibration curve and per-bucket hit rates are tracked on the
Calibration page.
Transparency Comparison
Most UFC prediction sites advertise high accuracy with no public verification path. Here's what FightEdge publishes
versus what's typical in the space.
| What We Publish | FightEdge | Typical Prediction Site |
|---|---|---|
| Walk-forward accuracy (out-of-sample, multi-window) | ✓ | ✗ |
| Per-window accuracy breakdown | ✓ | ✗ |
| Brier score (overall + holdout) | ✓ | ✗ |
| Calibration methodology + training-set size | ✓ | ✗ |
| Live per-event accuracy tracking | ✓ | ✗ |
| Public calibration curve | ✓ | ✗ |
| Closing Line Value (CLV) tracking per pick | ✓ | ✗ |
| Sample-size buckets / data-depth labels | ✓ | ✗ |
| Method probabilities (KO/SUB/DEC) per fighter | ✓ | ✓ |
| Win probability percentages | ✓ | ✓ |
| Confidence band labels (FLIP/LEAN/SOLID/STRONG) | ✓ | ✗ |
Verify Every Number Yourself
Live confidence-bucket calibration. See whether 70% picks really win 70% of the time.
Every prediction we've ever logged with its actual outcome. Per-event breakdown.
Live community-vs-model accuracy. The "BAR TO BEAT" row shows our walk-forward number.
Full platform story, what we built, who it's for, and how the data flows end-to-end.
A note on what these numbers mean:
A 76.3% hit rate on winner picks is exceptional in MMA — UFC fights are inherently variable, and elite handicappers
typically operate in the 60-65% range. But "high accuracy" alone doesn't guarantee profitable betting; profitability
requires accuracy AND finding edges where the market is mispriced. That's why we also track Closing Line Value
(CLV) per pick — see the Accuracy page. We publish all of this so you can
decide for yourself, not because we're guaranteeing outcomes. Predictions are not financial advice. Bet responsibly —
1-800-GAMBLER if you need help.