Frequently Asked Questions

66.9% on 1,145 out-of-sample fights using walk-forward validation. That means we trained on historical data and tested on fights the model had never seen. No cherry-picking, no data leakage. When the model is most confident (60%+), accuracy jumps to 91%. You can verify all of this on our Accuracy and Calibration pages.

Our proprietary ML model uses 149 engineered features per fight including striking accuracy, takedown rates, submission attempts, fight pace, reach differentials, Elo ratings, and more. It combines a scikit-learn ensemble (GradientBoosting + RandomForest) with exponential decay weighting so recent fights matter more. Each fight is also simulated 5,000 times via Monte Carlo to generate method-of-victory probabilities and round-by-round projections.

Walk-forward validation tests the model on fights it has never seen during training. We train on all fights before a certain date, then predict fights after that date. This prevents the model from 'memorizing' results and gives an honest accuracy number. Many competitors use backtesting which inflates accuracy.

Automatically every week (Sundays) when new fight results are available. The model also auto-updates its data pipeline during fight week to pull fresh odds, expert picks, and sentiment data.

Lock or Fade is our free community prediction game. Pick a winner for every fight on the upcoming card, and your picks are automatically scored after the event. Compete on the all-time leaderboard and track your accuracy, streak, and pick history. No subscription needed.

The Value Finder compares our model's win probabilities against live sportsbook odds from 7 major books. When the model disagrees with the market (e.g., model says 60% but odds imply 45%), that's a potential value bet. Pro feature.

Each fight is simulated 5,000 times round-by-round, modeling striking exchanges, takedowns, submissions, fatigue, and damage. This produces method-of-victory probabilities (KO/Sub/Decision), round finish distributions, and stat projections. Much richer than a simple win/loss prediction.

The Parlay Builder lets you combine multiple picks into a parlay and calculates combined odds, expected value, and correlated risk. It flags parlays where outcomes are correlated (e.g., two fighters on the same card) and shows you the edge.

Yes. New subscribers get 7 days of full Pro access free. Your card is required to start the trial but won't be charged until it ends. Cancel anytime during the trial and you'll never be charged.

Yes. Cancel through the Stripe billing portal from your Profile page. You keep Pro access until the end of your current billing period.

All major credit and debit cards via Stripe. Your card details are never stored on our servers — Stripe handles all payment security (PCI-DSS Level 1 certified).

We offer a 7-day money-back guarantee on your first subscription payment. Contact us via the contact form within 7 days of your charge.

You revert to the Free tier. All your data (bet history, Lock or Fade picks, preferences) is preserved. You can resubscribe anytime to regain Pro access.

Passwords are hashed with PBKDF2-SHA256 (1 million iterations). All traffic is encrypted via HTTPS. Your data is stored on AES-256 encrypted AWS infrastructure. We never store credit card numbers. See our Privacy Policy for full details.

Yes. Go to your Profile page and click 'Delete My Account' in the Danger Zone. This permanently deletes all your data, cancels any active subscription, and cannot be undone.

No. We never sell, rent, or share your personal data with third parties. Period.

Every UFC event — numbered PPVs, Fight Nights, and full cards including prelims. Our model runs predictions on every scheduled bout.

No. FightEdge is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by UFC or Zuffa LLC. Fighter names and event data are used for informational purposes under nominative fair use.

No. FightEdge provides statistical analysis for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not a sportsbook and do not accept or facilitate bets. Always gamble responsibly. See our Disclaimer.