Frequently Asked Questions

Our public benchmark is the graded record; its current verified snapshot is refreshing. Accuracy claims come from graded public picks scored against real results. You can verify the public benchmark on our Accuracy and Calibration pages.

Our proprietary rule + Elo predictor combines tuned heuristics informed by 6,871 historical fights with head-to-head Elo ratings that weight recent fights more heavily. The predictor scores striking accuracy, takedown rates, submission attempts, fight pace, reach differentials, style-matchup adjustments, and method probabilities across 149 input signals. Each fight is also simulated 15,000 times via Monte Carlo to generate method-of-victory probabilities and round-by-round projections. The final pick is passed through an isotonic calibration layer capped at 0.85 — we never claim 95%+ lock confidence in a sport with real variance.

Projected strikes, takedowns and control come from raw Monte Carlo fight simulations. The published winner comes from the calibrated rule + Elo path and its evidence checks. These are distinct outputs; more simulated volume does not establish more damage or prove why the winner model selected the other side. Winner-conditioned method and round probabilities are labeled separately from raw simulation counts.

The displayed band is a heuristic centered on the published favorite: it uses the larger of raw simulation sampling error and half the gap between the simulation and final model probabilities. It is not a statistical confidence interval for the actual win probability. A narrow band does not prove that every signal agrees or that input data is complete. A wide band is a reason to inspect the disagreement, not a betting-size formula.

A walk-forward backtest re-predicts past fights one year at a time. Ours rebuilds each fighter from today's profile, so later information can leak into older windows and the result likely reads high. It is labelled as research on the Accuracy page, next to the graded record of public picks scored against real results.

The rule + Elo predictor isn't a trained ML model — it's a deterministic system with continuously-updating per-fighter state. Elo ratings recompute automatically every time new fight results land in our database (typically within hours of a UFC event). Fighter profile stats refresh live on every prediction. The walk-forward isotonic calibration table refits automatically on the first Sunday of each month if enough new fights have accumulated — but only if the new fit actually beats the old on held-out Brier score. Data pipelines (odds, expert picks, sentiment, rankings) refresh on independent schedules (every 2-24h depending on fight week status).

Lock or Fade is our free community prediction game. Pick a winner for every fight on the upcoming card, and your picks are automatically scored after the event. Compete on the all-time leaderboard and track your accuracy, streak, and pick history. No subscription needed.

The Value Finder compares our model's win probabilities against live sportsbook odds from 8 major books. When the model disagrees with the market (e.g., model says 60% but odds imply 45%), that's a potential value bet. Pro feature.

Each fight is simulated 15,000 times round-by-round, modeling striking exchanges, takedowns, submissions, fatigue, and damage. This produces method-of-victory probabilities (KO/Sub/Decision), round finish distributions, and stat projections. Much richer than a simple win/loss prediction.

The Parlay Builder lets you combine multiple picks into a parlay and calculates combined odds, expected value, and correlated risk. It flags parlays where outcomes are correlated (e.g., two fighters on the same card) and shows you the edge.

A Pro feature that lets you adjust predictions for real-world variables. Select weight miss, short notice replacement, injury (legs/hands/cardio), venue altitude, or referee assignment — and instantly see how the win probability and method breakdown shift. No other UFC prediction tool offers this.

We track two distinct metrics on the Accuracy page: True CLV (Closing Line Value) measures whether the market moved TOWARD our pick after we made it — positive CLV means you got a better price than the close, the sharp-betting gold standard. Model Edge vs Close measures how much our model's confidence disagreed with the market's closing probability on the picked side — positive means we saw value the market didn't. Both are shown separately so you can evaluate the model as a bettor's tool (CLV) and as a forecasting tool (Edge) independently.

Fade signals flag market favorites that the model disagrees with. When a fighter is a heavy favorite (e.g., -200) but the model gives them a significantly lower probability, FightEdge flags it as a fade opportunity. Found on the Value Finder page.

It compares fighters across 11 statistical dimensions (striking volume, accuracy, defense, takedowns, submissions, and more) using cosine similarity. On any fighter's profile page, you'll see the top 5 most similar fighters — useful for understanding how a new matchup might play out based on comparable historical fights.

Yes, on either plan. Eligible first-time subscribers get 7 days of full Pro access free, one trial per account and per card. Your card is required to start the trial but won't be charged until it ends. Cancel anytime during the trial and you won't be charged.

Yes. Cancel from the billing section of your Settings page, which also opens the Stripe billing portal. Cancel during the free trial and you won't be charged; Pro stays on until the trial ends. After a payment, you keep Pro access until the end of the period you paid for.

All major credit and debit cards via Stripe. Your card details are never stored on our servers — Stripe handles all payment security (PCI-DSS Level 1 certified).

We offer a 7-day money-back guarantee on your first subscription payment. Contact us via the contact form within 7 days of your charge.

You revert to the Free tier. All your data (bet history, Lock or Fade picks, preferences) is preserved. You can resubscribe anytime to regain Pro access.

Passwords are hashed with PBKDF2-SHA256 (1 million iterations). All traffic is encrypted via HTTPS. Your data is stored on AES-256 encrypted AWS infrastructure. We never store credit card numbers. See our Privacy Policy for full details.

Yes. Go to your Settings page and click 'Delete My Account' in the Danger Zone. This permanently deletes all your data, cancels any active subscription, and cannot be undone.

No. We never sell or rent your personal data, and we never share it with third parties for their own marketing purposes. We use only the service providers listed in our Privacy Policy to run the platform.

Every UFC event — numbered PPVs, Fight Nights, and full cards including prelims. Our model runs predictions on every scheduled bout.

No. FightEdge is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by UFC or Zuffa LLC. Fighter names and event data are used for informational purposes under nominative fair use.

No. FightEdge provides statistical analysis for informational and entertainment purposes only. We are not a sportsbook and do not accept or facilitate bets. Always gamble responsibly. See our Disclaimer.

FightEdge provides statistical analysis and data-driven predictions — not guaranteed outcomes. Public benchmark status: The graded public record is refreshing; accuracy claims are withheld until the current verified snapshot is ready. CLV (Closing Line Value) is tracked separately as an edge signal over time. However, sports outcomes are inherently uncertain, individual results vary, and past performance does not guarantee future returns. Always bet responsibly and within your means.

FightEdge can be installed as an app today from your mobile browser using Add to Home Screen or Install. It remains a full web app optimized for desktop and mobile browsers, with a native app still on the roadmap.

The model performs best on fighters with 5+ UFC fights (more data = better predictions). For debuting fighters or those with fewer than 3 fights, predictions are regressed toward division averages and carry higher uncertainty. The model also doesn't account for undisclosed injuries, mental state, or camp-specific preparation — which is why we built the What-If Scenario Engine for manual adjustments.

The model is most confident in matchups between established fighters with clear stylistic differences (striker vs grappler, power vs volume). Coin-flip matchups between similar fighters naturally have lower confidence. The Calibration page shows exactly how the model performs at each confidence level — the pattern is consistent under-confidence, meaning fighters win even more often than the model predicts at every bucket.