Transparency · Track Record
Prediction History
Track record, live result status, and model calibration on real cards.
83%
Tracked Accuracy (5/6)
6
Predictions Scored
2
Events Tracked
0.250
Brier Score
75.4%
Walk-Forward Benchmark
Accuracy by Confidence Zone
Current: W2
Small live sample
Strong 65%+
-
No scored picks
Lean 55-65%
-
No scored picks
Coin Flip <55%
83%
5/6 correct
Expected 3.0 wins; delta +2.0
Thin sample
Exact Method Accuracy
Exact 3/5 (60%)
KO / TKO
100%
2/2 exact hits
Submission
-
No predictions yet
Decision
33%
1/3 exact hits
Predictions made before the v3.0 rebuild used a previous version. Current active predictor: In-house proprietary rule + Elo predictor
(75.4% walk-forward across 7 annual windows, 3148 out-of-sample fights).
A prior ML ensemble blend was retired in v3.2.7 after walk-forward validation showed it degraded probability calibration in every window (+0.02 to +0.04 Brier) with no consistent accuracy gain.