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Accuracy Tracker
Model performance — verified walk-forward + live tracking
Model Performance (v2.0 Walk-Forward)
Verified OOS
66.9%
Walk-Forward Accuracy
1,145
Test Fights (2024+)
0.2303
Brier Score
76.1%
STRONG Zone (65-80%)
Trained on pre-2024 data, tested on 2024+ fights. True out-of-sample, no data leakage.
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Live Prediction Tracking (1 scored, 52 pending)
53
Total Predictions
1
Scored
1
Correct
100.0%
Live Accuracy
Accuracy by Confidence Bucket
| Bucket | Count | Correct | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50-55% | 1 | 1 | 100% |
Recent Scored Predictions
| Fighter A | Fighter B | Pick | Confidence | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | Charles Oliveira | Holloway | 52% | Holloway | ✅ |