Miss Autopsy Archive

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC 329

### What Held
- **Strong overall accuracy**: 12/14 correct (85.7%), well above baseline expectations.
- **Main event called correctly**: Holloway over McGregor at modest 54% confidence—appropriate restraint given the matchup uncertainty.
- **Calibration cliff exposures performed well**: Both flagged picks (Steveson, Riley) landed correctly despite uplift concerns.
- **Upset path monitoring added value**: 5 of 6 flagged durability-risk picks still won; the one miss (Garbrandt) validated the flag system's purpose.

### What We Missed
- **Garbrandt vs Yanez**: Picked Garbrandt at 52% despite severe durability red flags (71% finished rate, 57% KO loss rate, 0.88 chin damage vs Yanez's 0.91 KO power). The upset-path flag correctly identified this risk—consider whether such extreme profiles should trigger confidence suppression.
- **Royval vs Kavanagh**:...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres (2026-06-27)

### What Held
- **Overall accuracy solid at 73.3% (11/15)**, performing within acceptable range for a Fight Night card.
- High-confidence picks on Shara Magomedov (75.7%), Jean Matsumoto (75.2%), Daniil Donchenko (75.0%), and Ikram Aliskerov (76.3%) all converted correctly.
- Upset-path flagged picks (Aliskerov, Abusupiyan Magomedov, Yakhyaev, Ruziboev, Hasanov) survived durability concerns and went 6/8—flags functioning as intended risk alerts rather than miss predictors.

### What We Missed
- **High-confidence miss: Jefferson Nascimento (80.0%)** lost to Tahir Abdullayev by KO/TKO. This pick had a 16.9pp calibration uplift from raw probability (68.1% → 80.0%), suggesting potential over-inflation. Warrants a closer look at the underlying model inputs for this fight.
- **Main event miss: Manuel Torres** picke...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit
**UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi | 2026-06-20**

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### What Held

- **Overall accuracy solid at 66.7%** (8/12), acceptable for a card with several close matchups
- **High-confidence pick delivered:** Stirling over Cutelaba at 83% confidence hit via KO/TKO; calibration uplift flagged but outcome validated the pick
- **Low-confidence coin-flip calls performed well:** Main event (Kape, 50.2%), Fili/Oliveira (53%), and Rodriguez/Amil (52%) all correct despite thin edges
- **Upset-path flagged fights:** Mesquita and Chokheli picks both survived durability concerns and won, suggesting the flags functioned as intended review triggers rather than automatic downgrades

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### What We Missed

- **High-confidence miss requires review:** Andre Lima at 85% confidence lost by decision to Kevin Borjas—this is the card's standout blind spot and warrants a deeper l...

**FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Freedom 250 (2026-06-14)**

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**What Held**

- Finished 4/7 correct (57.1%), within expected variance for a small card sample.
- High-confidence picks on Josh Hokit (77.1%) and Mauricio Ruffy (75.8%) both delivered via KO/TKO as projected.
- Low-confidence coinflips (O'Malley, Nickal) landed correctly despite thin edges.
- No pipeline divergences flagged; snapshot coverage was complete (7/7 scored rows).

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**What We Missed**

- **Main event (Topuria vs. Gaethje):** High-confidence miss at 76.3%. Diagnostics show this pick had a strict calibration cliff exposure—raw probability was 59.4% but displayed at 76.3% after a 16.9pp uplift. Gaethje won by KO/TKO. This is the single high-confidence finish miss for the card.
- **Pereira vs. Gane:** Near-coinflip (51.2%) missed. Upset-path review flagged Pereira's 50% finish-loss rate and Gane's KO power; the...

**FightEdge Post-Event Audit**
**UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim | 2026-06-06**

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**WHAT HELD**

- Overall accuracy at 75% (9/12), solid performance across the card
- All five upset-path flagged picks (Souza, Chaves, Chandler, McGhee, Allen) resolved correctly despite durability concerns
- Calibration cliff exposure on Tafa/Baraniewski (65% confidence with +18.9pp uplift) resulted in a correct pick
- Pipeline divergences on Chandler and Baraniewski picks were both correct; no adverse signal from the gap
- Low-confidence picks (50-54% range) performed well: 7/9 correct in that band

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**WHAT WE MISSED**

- Main event: Picked Muhammad at 53.5%, Bonfim won by decision—model underestimated Bonfim's path to victory
- Mitchell vs. Luna: Picked Luna at 53.5%, Mitchell won via submission—grappling threat underweighted
- Ziam vs. Nolan: Picked Ziam at 53.5%, Nolan won by decision
- Ex...

**FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo (2026-05-30)**

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**What Held**

- Overall accuracy 9/12 (75%) is solid for a 12-fight card.
- Both calibration cliff exposures (Haddon, Pavlovich) converted correctly despite elevated uplift values—confidence display held up.
- Low-confidence coin-flip picks (Vera 50.4%, Dias 50.0%, Tsuruya 53.5%) all landed, showing the model avoids overreach when uncertain.
- Main event called correctly: Song Yadong via submission at 53.5% confidence.

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**What We Missed**

- **High-confidence finish miss:** Asakura vs. Smotherman—model favored Smotherman at 75.6%, but Asakura won by KO/TKO. Upset-path diagnostics flagged Smotherman's chin damage (0.67) and Asakura's finishing upside (75.9% finish rate, 0.78 KO power). Model overweighted Smotherman's grappling edge without sufficiently discounting durability risk.
- **Zhang Mingy...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit
**UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa | 2026-05-16**

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### What Held
- Overall accuracy 61.5% (8/13) is acceptable for a 13-fight card.
- Low-confidence coin-flip picks (Gantt, Williams, Erslan, Allen) all landed correctly, showing appropriate restraint when edge was thin.
- Vieira and Ardelean high-confidence picks converted as expected.

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### What We Missed
- **Three high-confidence finish losses:** Petroski (85%), Santos (81.7%), and Wellmaker (75%) all lost to finishes (2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB). The upset-path review flagged Petroski's durability risk pre-fight (80% gets-finished rate, 0.62 chin damage score vs. Brundage's 75.6% KO power), yet confidence remained elevated.
- **Calibration cliff exposure:** 4 of 5 cliff-flagged picks sat on strict cliff faces with 20pp+ uplift; two of those (Petroski, Wellmaker) missed. Display confidence ran well ahead of r...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit — UFC 328 (2026-05-09)

**Record: 6-6 (50.0%)**

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### What Held

- **High-confidence cliff picks performed well:** Three 85% picks (King Green, Ateba Gautier, Baisangur Susurkaev) all converted correctly despite significant calibration uplift from raw probabilities. The cliff mapping delivered on these selections.
- **Low-confidence coin-flip picks:** Narrow-edge calls on Amosov (50.7%), Kopylov (52.6%), and Ochoa (53.5%) went 3-for-4, appropriate for near-toss-up fights.
- **Upset-path flagging worked:** The Alvarez-Amosov upset-path flag correctly identified durability risk, and the pick (Amosov) still landed via submission.

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### What We Missed

- **Sabatini over Gomis (72% miss):** Single high-confidence miss of the card. Raw probability was 61.5%, cliff-boosted to 72%. Sabatini won by decision—worth reviewing whether grappling pressure or pace f...

**FightEdge Post-Event Audit**
**UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates | 2026-05-02**

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**WHAT HELD**

- Overall accuracy 8/12 (66.7%) is serviceable for a card with several close matchups
- All 5 calibration-cliff-uplifted picks in the strict cliff region converted (Dariush-Salkilld, Gaziev-Pericic, Micallef-Gorimbo, Thicknesse-Morales), validating the uplift logic this event
- High-confidence selections (≥75%) went 4/5; only Tuivasa missed
- Main event coin-flip call (Prates at 50.03%) landed correctly via KO/TKO
- Upset-path flagged fights (Rowston, Malkoun) both held despite finishing upside from opponents

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**WHAT WE MISSED**

- **Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland (75% → loss by DEC):** Sole high-confidence miss; pipeline divergence also flagged this fight (walk-forward had 53.5%). Tuivasa's durability concerns may warrant closer scrutiny in future heavyweight matchups
-...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night 2026-05-02

### What Held
- Snapshot coverage was complete (1/1 scored events captured).
- Pipeline divergence monitoring functioned as expected; no action required since walk-forward files regenerate post-event.

### What We Missed
- **Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele**: Picked Dom Mar Fan at 80.8% confidence; Steele won by submission. This triggered three flags:
  - *Calibration cliff exposure*: Raw probability was only 60.5%, but calibration uplift added 20.25pp, pushing displayed confidence to 80.8%. The strict cliff-face flag indicates this pick sat in a known plateau region.
  - *High-confidence miss*: The inflated confidence made this a notable blind spot.
  - *Pipeline divergence (monitor-only)*: Walk-forward actually favored Steele at 53.5%—a 27pp gap from the published pick.
- **Tai Tuivasa vs Sean Sharaf**: Cancelled; no actionable miss...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night 2026-04-25

### What Held
- Overall accuracy at 61.5% (8/13) within acceptable range for a card of this profile
- High-confidence picks performed well: Francis Marshall (0.85) and Mayra Bueno Silva vs Montague (0.739) both correct
- Low-confidence coin-flip picks (Sterling, Garcia, Alencar all ~0.51-0.52) converted as expected without overcommitting
- No calibration cliff exposures, upset path flags, or high-confidence finish misses flagged in diagnostics

### What We Missed
- Rodolfo Vieira loss to McConico (0.622 confidence) — highest-confidence miss of the card; decision loss suggests cardio/pace factors may have been underweighted
- Sedriques Dumas pick over Jackson McVey (0.589) lost via submission — grappling exchange went opposite direction
- Montel Jackson and Norma Dumont misses were lower-confidence (0.527, 0.539) and within expect...

# FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night 2026-04-18

## What Held
- **Overall accuracy at 50% (6/12)** with no high-confidence misses flagged
- Burns vs Malott called correctly at moderate confidence (62.5%) with KO/TKO finish
- Low-confidence coin-flip picks (Croden 50.07%, Jasudavicius 56.9%) landed correctly
- Saricam and Gauge Young picks converted as expected in the mid-confidence tier
- No calibration cliff exposures or flagged watch items triggered

## What We Missed
- **Leblanc vs Valentin (62.8% confidence):** Picked Leblanc, lost by submission—highest confidence miss of the card but below high-confidence threshold
- **Siraj vs Yannis (59.6%):** Siraj picked, Yannis won by KO/TKO
- **Castaneda vs Vologdin:** Draw outcome; model has no draw-prediction pathway, inherent blind spot
- **Phillips vs Jourdain & Nallo vs Herbert:** Both narrow-edge picks (52.5%, 50.01%) lost—expec...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC 327 (2026-04-11)

### What Held
- Overall accuracy at 66.7% (8/12) reflects reasonable performance for a card with narrow confidence spreads
- Low-confidence picks performed as expected: Blaydes-Hokit (50.3%), Freire-Pico (50.4%), and Prochazka-Ulberg (51.0%) all landed correctly despite near-coinflip signals
- No calibration cliff exposures, high-confidence misses, or pipeline divergences flagged

### What We Missed
- **Murzakanov vs Costa**: Picked Murzakanov at 59.6% (our highest confidence); Costa won by KO/TKO — worth noting but not yet a pattern
- **Holland vs Brown**: Picked Brown at 53.8%; Holland won by decision — Holland's unpredictability continues to challenge the model
- **Gastelum vs Luque**: Near-coinflip (50.2%) miss; Luque won by submission
- **Padilla vs Mederos**: Draw result; model not designed to predict draws so this is an expected...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night 2026-04-04

### What Held
- Overall accuracy at 61.5% (8/13) remains serviceable for a card with several close matchups.
- Highest-confidence pick of the night (Yakhyaev at 75.7%) converted correctly via submission.
- Mid-tier confidence selections (Costa 65.0%, McMillen 61.1%) both landed as expected with KO/TKO finishes.
- Low-confidence coinflip calls (Jandiroba, Ewing, Delano, Pereira, Kamaka) went 5/5, indicating model wasn't overreaching on uncertain fights.

### What We Missed
- **High-confidence finish miss:** Vannata (67.8%) lost by KO/TKO to Flowers. This was the only pick above 65% that failed and warrants attention as a potential blind spot around Vannata's durability or Flowers' power.
- **Bekoev vs Gore:** Model favored Bekoev (57.1%) but Gore won via submission—possible underestimation of Gore's grappling threat.
- **Moicano v...