Proof & Records

Miss Autopsy Archive

Recorded model misses, review tags and available post-event reviews.

122
Tracked Misses
25
Events With Misses
Public
Review Mode
August 15, 2026

Ufc 330 2026 08 15

9 misses

Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Chapolin

Model had Eduardo Chapolin at 52%. Actual: Charles Johnson by SUB.
confidence capped expert signal present sentiment signal present SUB

Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Alvarez

Model had Joel Alvarez at 56%. Actual: Chidi Njokuani by DEC.
expert signal present sentiment signal present DEC

Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore

Model had Vicente Luque at 52%. Actual: Tresean Gore by DEC.
expert signal present sentiment signal present DEC

Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj

Model had Ramiz Brahimaj at 52%. Actual: Neil Magny by KO/TKO.
expert signal present sentiment signal present KO/TKO

Jalin Turner vs Kaue Fernandes

Model had Kaue Fernandes at 54%. Actual: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO.
expert signal present sentiment signal present KO/TKO

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai

Model had Myktybek Orolbai at 55%. Actual: Jeremiah Wells by SUB.
expert signal present sentiment signal present SUB

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus

Model had Mansur Abdul-Malik at 52%. Actual: Dustin Stoltzfus by SUB.
expert signal present sentiment signal present SUB

Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson

Model had Gillian Robertson at 52%. Actual: Mackenzie Dern by DEC.
confidence capped expert signal present sentiment signal present DEC

Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry

Model had Ian Machado Garry at 51%. Actual: Islam Makhachev by DEC.
expert signal present sentiment signal present DEC
August 8, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld

2 misses

Diego Ferreira vs Billy Quarantillo

Model had Billy Quarantillo at 50%. Actual: Diego Ferreira by DEC.
DEC

Manoel Sousa vs Richie Miranda

Model had Richie Miranda at 52%. Actual: Manoel Sousa by DEC.
DEC
August 1, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez

7 misses

Uros Medic vs Daniel Rodriguez

Model had Daniel Rodriguez at 52%. Actual: Uros Medic by KO/TKO.
KO/TKO

Aleksandar Rakic vs Marcin Tybura

Model had Marcin Tybura at 51%. Actual: Aleksandar Rakic by DEC.
DEC

Dusko Todorovic vs Robert Valentin

Model had Dusko Todorovic at 52%. Actual: Robert Valentin by SUB.
SUB

Vlasto Cepo vs Gilbert Urbina

Model had Vlasto Cepo at 62%. Actual: Gilbert Urbina by KO/TKO.
KO/TKO

Milos Janicic vs Noah Gugnon

Model had Milos Janicic at 51%. Actual: Noah Gugnon by SUB.
SUB

Ludovit Klein vs Tofiq Musayev

Model had Ludovit Klein at 61%. Actual: Tofiq Musayev by KO/TKO.
KO/TKO

Marina Spasic vs Stephanie Luciano

Model had Marina Spasic at 52%. Actual: Stephanie Luciano by SUB.
SUB
July 11, 2026

UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2

2 misses Audit ok

Brandon Royval vs Lone'er Kavanagh

Model had Lone'er Kavanagh at 53%. Actual: Brandon Royval by SUB.
expert signal present sentiment signal present SUB

Cody Garbrandt vs Adrian Yanez

Model had Cody Garbrandt at 52%. Actual: Adrian Yanez by KO/TKO.
expert signal present sentiment signal present KO/TKO
Post-event review excerpt 
## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC 329

### What Held
- **Strong overall accuracy**: 12/14 correct (85.7%), well above baseline expectations.
- **Main event called correctly**: Holloway over McGregor at modest 54% confidence—appropriate restraint given the matchup uncertainty.
- **Calibration cliff exposures performed well**: Both flagged picks (Steveson, Riley) landed correctly despite uplift concerns.
- **Upset path monitoring added value**: 5 of 6 flagged durability-risk picks still won; the one miss (Garbrandt) validated the flag system's purpose.

### What We Missed
- **Garbrandt vs Yanez**: Picked Garbrandt at 52% despite severe durability red flags (71% finished rate, 57% KO loss rate, 0.88 chin damage vs Yanez's 0.91 KO power). The upset-path flag correctly identified this risk—consider whether such extreme profiles should trigger confidence suppression.
- **Royval vs Kavanagh**:...