Miss Autopsy Archive

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres (2026-06-27)

### What Held
- **Overall accuracy solid at 73.3% (11/15)**, performing within acceptable range for a Fight Night card.
- High-confidence picks on Shara Magomedov (75.7%), Jean Matsumoto (75.2%), Daniil Donchenko (75.0%), and Ikram Aliskerov (76.3%) all converted correctly.
- Upset-path flagged picks (Aliskerov, Abusupiyan Magomedov, Yakhyaev, Ruziboev, Hasanov) survived durability concerns and went 6/8—flags functioning as intended risk alerts rather than miss predictors.

### What We Missed
- **High-confidence miss: Jefferson Nascimento (80.0%)** lost to Tahir Abdullayev by KO/TKO. This pick had a 16.9pp calibration uplift from raw probability (68.1% → 80.0%), suggesting potential over-inflation. Warrants a closer look at the underlying model inputs for this fight.
- **Main event miss: Manuel Torres** picke...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit
**UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi | 2026-06-20**

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### What Held

- **Overall accuracy solid at 66.7%** (8/12), acceptable for a card with several close matchups
- **High-confidence pick delivered:** Stirling over Cutelaba at 83% confidence hit via KO/TKO; calibration uplift flagged but outcome validated the pick
- **Low-confidence coin-flip calls performed well:** Main event (Kape, 50.2%), Fili/Oliveira (53%), and Rodriguez/Amil (52%) all correct despite thin edges
- **Upset-path flagged fights:** Mesquita and Chokheli picks both survived durability concerns and won, suggesting the flags functioned as intended review triggers rather than automatic downgrades

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### What We Missed

- **High-confidence miss requires review:** Andre Lima at 85% confidence lost by decision to Kevin Borjas—this is the card's standout blind spot and warrants a deeper l...

**FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Freedom 250 (2026-06-14)**

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**What Held**

- Finished 4/7 correct (57.1%), within expected variance for a small card sample.
- High-confidence picks on Josh Hokit (77.1%) and Mauricio Ruffy (75.8%) both delivered via KO/TKO as projected.
- Low-confidence coinflips (O'Malley, Nickal) landed correctly despite thin edges.
- No pipeline divergences flagged; snapshot coverage was complete (7/7 scored rows).

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**What We Missed**

- **Main event (Topuria vs. Gaethje):** High-confidence miss at 76.3%. Diagnostics show this pick had a strict calibration cliff exposure—raw probability was 59.4% but displayed at 76.3% after a 16.9pp uplift. Gaethje won by KO/TKO. This is the single high-confidence finish miss for the card.
- **Pereira vs. Gane:** Near-coinflip (51.2%) missed. Upset-path review flagged Pereira's 50% finish-loss rate and Gane's KO power; the...

**FightEdge Post-Event Audit**
**UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim | 2026-06-06**

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**WHAT HELD**

- Overall accuracy at 75% (9/12), solid performance across the card
- All five upset-path flagged picks (Souza, Chaves, Chandler, McGhee, Allen) resolved correctly despite durability concerns
- Calibration cliff exposure on Tafa/Baraniewski (65% confidence with +18.9pp uplift) resulted in a correct pick
- Pipeline divergences on Chandler and Baraniewski picks were both correct; no adverse signal from the gap
- Low-confidence picks (50-54% range) performed well: 7/9 correct in that band

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**WHAT WE MISSED**

- Main event: Picked Muhammad at 53.5%, Bonfim won by decision—model underestimated Bonfim's path to victory
- Mitchell vs. Luna: Picked Luna at 53.5%, Mitchell won via submission—grappling threat underweighted
- Ziam vs. Nolan: Picked Ziam at 53.5%, Nolan won by decision
- Ex...