Proof & Records

Miss Autopsy Archive

Recorded model misses, review tags and available post-event reviews.

122
Tracked Misses
25
Events With Misses
Public
Review Mode
May 30, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo

3 misses Audit ok

Alonzo Menifield vs Zhang Mingyang

Model had Zhang Mingyang at 54%. Actual: Alonzo Menifield by KO/TKO.
KO/TKO

Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman

Model had Cameron Smotherman at 76%. Actual: Kai Asakura by KO/TKO.
KO/TKO

Ding Meng vs Jose Henrique

Model had Ding Meng at 54%. Actual: Jose Henrique by DEC.
DEC
Post-event review excerpt 
**FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo (2026-05-30)**

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**What Held**

- Overall accuracy 9/12 (75%) is solid for a 12-fight card.
- Both calibration cliff exposures (Haddon, Pavlovich) converted correctly despite elevated uplift values—confidence display held up.
- Low-confidence coin-flip picks (Vera 50.4%, Dias 50.0%, Tsuruya 53.5%) all landed, showing the model avoids overreach when uncertain.
- Main event called correctly: Song Yadong via submission at 53.5% confidence.

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**What We Missed**

- **High-confidence finish miss:** Asakura vs. Smotherman—model favored Smotherman at 75.6%, but Asakura won by KO/TKO. Upset-path diagnostics flagged Smotherman's chin damage (0.67) and Asakura's finishing upside (75.9% finish rate, 0.78 KO power). Model overweighted Smotherman's grappling edge without sufficiently discounting durability risk.
- **Zhang Mingy...
May 16, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa

5 misses Audit ok

Cody Brundage vs Andre Petroski

Model had Andre Petroski at 85%. Actual: Cody Brundage by KO/TKO.
KO/TKO

Daniel Barez vs Luis Gurule

Model had Daniel Barez at 51%. Actual: Luis Gurule by DEC.
DEC

Dooho Choi vs Daniel Santos

Model had Daniel Santos at 82%. Actual: Dooho Choi by KO/TKO.
KO/TKO

Malcolm Wellmaker vs Juan Diaz

Model had Malcolm Wellmaker at 75%. Actual: Juan Diaz by SUB.
SUB

Nicolle Caliari vs Shauna Bannon

Model had Shauna Bannon at 54%. Actual: Nicolle Caliari by SUB.
SUB
Post-event review excerpt 
## FightEdge Post-Event Audit
**UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa | 2026-05-16**

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### What Held
- Overall accuracy 61.5% (8/13) is acceptable for a 13-fight card.
- Low-confidence coin-flip picks (Gantt, Williams, Erslan, Allen) all landed correctly, showing appropriate restraint when edge was thin.
- Vieira and Ardelean high-confidence picks converted as expected.

---

### What We Missed
- **Three high-confidence finish losses:** Petroski (85%), Santos (81.7%), and Wellmaker (75%) all lost to finishes (2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB). The upset-path review flagged Petroski's durability risk pre-fight (80% gets-finished rate, 0.62 chin damage score vs. Brundage's 75.6% KO power), yet confidence remained elevated.
- **Calibration cliff exposure:** 4 of 5 cliff-flagged picks sat on strict cliff faces with 20pp+ uplift; two of those (Petroski, Wellmaker) missed. Display confidence ran well ahead of r...
May 9, 2026

UFC 328

5 misses Audit ok

Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis

Model had William Gomis at 72%. Actual: Pat Sabatini by DEC.
DEC

Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki

Model had Mateusz Rebecki at 50%. Actual: Grant Dawson by SUB.
SUB

Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Model had Waldo Cortes-Acosta at 51%. Actual: Alexander Volkov by DEC.
DEC

Sean Brady vs Joaquin Buckley

Model had Joaquin Buckley at 50%. Actual: Sean Brady by DEC.
DEC

Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland

Model had Khamzat Chimaev at 56%. Actual: Sean Strickland by DEC.
DEC
Post-event review excerpt 
## FightEdge Post-Event Audit — UFC 328 (2026-05-09)

**Record: 6-6 (50.0%)**

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### What Held

- **High-confidence cliff picks performed well:** Three 85% picks (King Green, Ateba Gautier, Baisangur Susurkaev) all converted correctly despite significant calibration uplift from raw probabilities. The cliff mapping delivered on these selections.
- **Low-confidence coin-flip picks:** Narrow-edge calls on Amosov (50.7%), Kopylov (52.6%), and Ochoa (53.5%) went 3-for-4, appropriate for near-toss-up fights.
- **Upset-path flagging worked:** The Alvarez-Amosov upset-path flag correctly identified durability risk, and the pick (Amosov) still landed via submission.

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### What We Missed

- **Sabatini over Gomis (72% miss):** Single high-confidence miss of the card. Raw probability was 61.5%, cliff-boosted to 72%. Sabatini won by decision—worth reviewing whether grappling pressure or pace f...
May 2, 2026

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates

4 misses Audit ok

Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland

Model had Tai Tuivasa at 75%. Actual: Louie Sutherland by DEC.
DEC

Tim Elliott vs Steve Erceg

Model had Tim Elliott at 51%. Actual: Steve Erceg by DEC.
DEC

Junior Tafa vs Kevin Christian

Model had Kevin Christian at 51%. Actual: Junior Tafa by KO/TKO.
KO/TKO

Ben Johnston vs Wes Schultz

Model had Ben Johnston at 54%. Actual: Wes Schultz by SUB.
SUB
Post-event review excerpt 
**FightEdge Post-Event Audit**
**UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates | 2026-05-02**

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**WHAT HELD**

- Overall accuracy 8/12 (66.7%) is serviceable for a card with several close matchups
- All 5 calibration-cliff-uplifted picks in the strict cliff region converted (Dariush-Salkilld, Gaziev-Pericic, Micallef-Gorimbo, Thicknesse-Morales), validating the uplift logic this event
- High-confidence selections (≥75%) went 4/5; only Tuivasa missed
- Main event coin-flip call (Prates at 50.03%) landed correctly via KO/TKO
- Upset-path flagged fights (Rowston, Malkoun) both held despite finishing upside from opponents

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**WHAT WE MISSED**

- **Tai Tuivasa vs Louie Sutherland (75% → loss by DEC):** Sole high-confidence miss; pipeline divergence also flagged this fight (walk-forward had 53.5%). Tuivasa's durability concerns may warrant closer scrutiny in future heavyweight matchups
-...