Miss Autopsy Archive

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night 2026-05-02

### What Held
- Snapshot coverage was complete (1/1 scored events captured).
- Pipeline divergence monitoring functioned as expected; no action required since walk-forward files regenerate post-event.

### What We Missed
- **Dom Mar Fan vs Kody Steele**: Picked Dom Mar Fan at 80.8% confidence; Steele won by submission. This triggered three flags:
  - *Calibration cliff exposure*: Raw probability was only 60.5%, but calibration uplift added 20.25pp, pushing displayed confidence to 80.8%. The strict cliff-face flag indicates this pick sat in a known plateau region.
  - *High-confidence miss*: The inflated confidence made this a notable blind spot.
  - *Pipeline divergence (monitor-only)*: Walk-forward actually favored Steele at 53.5%—a 27pp gap from the published pick.
- **Tai Tuivasa vs Sean Sharaf**: Cancelled; no actionable miss...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night 2026-04-25

### What Held
- Overall accuracy at 61.5% (8/13) within acceptable range for a card of this profile
- High-confidence picks performed well: Francis Marshall (0.85) and Mayra Bueno Silva vs Montague (0.739) both correct
- Low-confidence coin-flip picks (Sterling, Garcia, Alencar all ~0.51-0.52) converted as expected without overcommitting
- No calibration cliff exposures, upset path flags, or high-confidence finish misses flagged in diagnostics

### What We Missed
- Rodolfo Vieira loss to McConico (0.622 confidence) — highest-confidence miss of the card; decision loss suggests cardio/pace factors may have been underweighted
- Sedriques Dumas pick over Jackson McVey (0.589) lost via submission — grappling exchange went opposite direction
- Montel Jackson and Norma Dumont misses were lower-confidence (0.527, 0.539) and within expect...

# FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC Fight Night 2026-04-18

## What Held
- **Overall accuracy at 50% (6/12)** with no high-confidence misses flagged
- Burns vs Malott called correctly at moderate confidence (62.5%) with KO/TKO finish
- Low-confidence coin-flip picks (Croden 50.07%, Jasudavicius 56.9%) landed correctly
- Saricam and Gauge Young picks converted as expected in the mid-confidence tier
- No calibration cliff exposures or flagged watch items triggered

## What We Missed
- **Leblanc vs Valentin (62.8% confidence):** Picked Leblanc, lost by submission—highest confidence miss of the card but below high-confidence threshold
- **Siraj vs Yannis (59.6%):** Siraj picked, Yannis won by KO/TKO
- **Castaneda vs Vologdin:** Draw outcome; model has no draw-prediction pathway, inherent blind spot
- **Phillips vs Jourdain & Nallo vs Herbert:** Both narrow-edge picks (52.5%, 50.01%) lost—expec...

## FightEdge Post-Event Audit: UFC 327 (2026-04-11)

### What Held
- Overall accuracy at 66.7% (8/12) reflects reasonable performance for a card with narrow confidence spreads
- Low-confidence picks performed as expected: Blaydes-Hokit (50.3%), Freire-Pico (50.4%), and Prochazka-Ulberg (51.0%) all landed correctly despite near-coinflip signals
- No calibration cliff exposures, high-confidence misses, or pipeline divergences flagged

### What We Missed
- **Murzakanov vs Costa**: Picked Murzakanov at 59.6% (our highest confidence); Costa won by KO/TKO — worth noting but not yet a pattern
- **Holland vs Brown**: Picked Brown at 53.8%; Holland won by decision — Holland's unpredictability continues to challenge the model
- **Gastelum vs Luque**: Near-coinflip (50.2%) miss; Luque won by submission
- **Padilla vs Mederos**: Draw result; model not designed to predict draws so this is an expected...