Proof & Records · Public Ledger
Model Proof Center
A single trust surface for FightEdge record, event receipts, value-signal coverage, and benchmark comparisons.
Verified proof refresh in progress.
The last verified public record remains visible while the updated ledger is rebuilt.
Current Public Record
112/168
FightEdge winner picks are graded after results settle, deduped by fight pair, and linked back to event receipts wherever possible. Use this page to decide whether the platform is earning trust before relying on any single card.
Latest Event Receipt
7/11
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
2026-07-25 · 63.6% accuracy · 11 scored
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Public model record
112/168
Published model winner picks, deduped by fight pair.
Tracked hit rate
66.7%
Every scored fight uses the same public grading rules.
Latest event receipt
7/11
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov
Stored model edge
-1.4pp
47 graded fights with saved market context
Confidence Buckets
Reliability check
65%+
71.1%
27/38 · 38 graded picks
57-64%
72.7%
16/22 · 22 graded picks
50-56%
63.9%
69/108 · 108 graded picks
Value Signal Coverage
Open CLV
Stored Model Edge
-1.4pp
47 graded rows · 36% positive
True CLV
+0.0pp
0 graded rows · Pending positive
Historical tracking is informational and entertainment-only. It is not financial or betting advice, and past results do not guarantee future outcomes.
Recent Event Receipts
All receipts
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Suggested audit path
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One page for model record, value context, and receipts.
Review event receipts
Fight-by-fight scored cards with hits, misses, and method notes.
Check CLV ledger
Market-edge context where stored odds make it available.
Read methodology
How the model, simulations, and public tracking fit together.
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Current Benchmark Leader
3 graded
1
Dratings
Sample building (3/3) hit rate
Scoring Note
Rows only grade samples that have the needed source data.
Scoring Note
Brier appears where a source probability was stored; hit rate appears everywhere a side was scorable.
Primary Benchmarks
5 rows
| Source | Record | Hit Rate | Brier | Scope |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
FightEdge model
prediction_log
|
112/168 | 66.7% | 0.234 | Published model winner picks, deduped by fight pair. |
|
Closing favorite
closing odds
|
36/47 | 76.6% | 0.184 | Benchmark that always takes the closing-market favorite when closing probability is stored. |
|
Expert consensus
expert snapshots
|
34/45 | 75.6% | 0.250 | Consensus picks captured inside model snapshots when available. |
|
Reddit lean
sentiment snapshots
|
4/13 | Sample building (4/13) | Not tracked | r/MMA/social sentiment lean when the prediction snapshot carried a usable side. |
|
Lock-or-Fade community
challenge_picks
|
261/405 | 64.4% | Not tracked | Member picks from the free community game. This grades individual picks, not a per-fight majority yet. |
Scraped Expert Sources
2 sources
| Source | Record | Hit Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dratings | 3/3 | Sample building (3/3) |
| Mmaintel | 4/4 | Sample building (4/4) |